Experts reveal how to pick a winner in tomorrow’s Cup 23



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They’re calling it “the data that stops a nation” – but could it help you pick that elusive winner in tomorrow’s Melbourne Cup?

Analysts from PriceWaterhouse Coopers, who tend to use their skills to help businesses and governments grow and spend money, have applied their talent to the world’s greatest race.

It’s the fourth year the consultancy has attempted to pick a winner, a notoriously difficult feat.

They say, “As you are all aware, the Melbourne Cup is a particularly tricky one to predict as it is a race of champions with each horse being a star in its own right.”

This year, the team used various modelling techniques to identify the winning horses, including “the tried-and-tested” linear regression model, a new machine learning model, and another more unique approach.

They gathered data from more that 50,000 horses and 1 million race results, floated in the immense number of variables (race odds, form, weight of the jockey, track condition, barrier position), then crunched the numbers to come up with the following odds:

    1. Fame Game at $3.50
    2. Preferment at $9
    3. Trip to Paris at $9
    4. Almoonquith at $14
    5. The United States at $21

Screen Shot 2015-11-02 at 1.30.19 pm

Graphic from PwC’s Horsing Around website.

Will you be celebrating tomorrow? How do you choose a horse to back? Is it the luck of the draw (or sweep)? Do you follow jockeys or trainers? Or choose a horse with a name you like? 


Starts at 60 Writers

The Starts at 60 writers team seek out interesting topics and write them especially for you.

  1. The hardest race to pick a winner. I generally don’t win, but I usually tip based on the trainer and the jockey riding it. It will be interesting to see if Fame Game does in fact win.

  2. I usually go with names I like, used to favour Jockeys but don’t know that many of them now it’s a once a year splurge and if I come out in front I’m happy but usually just happy to have a good day out.

  3. I know many professional punters & they get really mad when they hear ladies like myself, have quite big wins – & all we do is ‘like’ the colours of the jockey & the horse’s number because it is our favourite!!

  4. I cleaned up here in the sweeps last year with 2x 1st place 3 x 2nd place and 1 3rd place and although I’m hoping for a win again tomorrow I can’t be greedy, so good luck to everyone who will have a punt tomorrow.

  5. Sorry I hate horse racing, I can’t stand seeing horses being flogged to death in the name of entertainment.

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