Are we set for another “Big Dry”?

Remember the drought conditions of 1982-’83? Well, we could be in for more of the same this year.

In good news for heat-lovers (but bad news for fans of chillier weather) it looks like we could be in for a sweltering 2014, with another El Niño said to be on the horizon.

Information released by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) this week suggests that El Niño thresholds could be surpassed by August.

The tropical Pacific Ocean has seen surface temperatures warming since February, with anomalies increasing by 0.5 to 1.0°c.

Officially, an El Niño “alert” is in place and the bureau believes there is a 70% chance of an El Niño taking place this year.

David Jones, head of climate monitoring at the BoM, told Fairfax Media: “A lot of the precursory signatures of an El Niño event are already out there in the Pacific.”

So, what is an El Niño? It’s essentially an “event”, and it’s associated with the appearance of warmer currents that come in off the coast of South America along with sustained negative “Southern Oscillation Index values” (don’t ask!), often coinciding with cooler sea temperatures than is normal in the Western Pacific and to the north of Australia. When an El Niño event occurs, it often means a lot of Australia – and particularly the eastern side of the country – will see drier than normal conditions, as opposed to an El Niña, which sees wetter conditions.

In 2009-’10, Western Australia experienced a weak El Niño, with rainfall patterns much lower than is normal for the region. Back in 2006, an El Niño affected most of the country, with northern Tasmania and southern Victoria the hardest hit – that year saw fires across the Great Dividing Range that were the longest running in the state’s history. Further back, you’ll probably remember the drought conditions of 2002-’03, the result of a moderate El Niño, as well as the more severe droughts of ’82-’83.

What can we expect from an El Niño if we do see one this year? According to the BoM, about two thirds of the El Niño events over the last 110 years have been responsible for serious drought conditions. But that doesn’t mean we need to batten down the hatches and start storing water! The results gathered so far only point to a possibility, and even if an El Niño does occur, a drought won’t necessarily be the result.

According to Dr Jones, “both Melbourne and Sydney have the potential to have their warmest May on record, particularly Sydney” and he added: ”The odds are certainly favouring a below-average ski season.”

Do you remember El Niño years of the past? Were you hit hard in the ’82-’83 drought, or the 2006 fires? Tell us your stories in the comments below…