Why cheaper lamb could be a long wait for Aussies

Australians hoping for a cheaper Sunday lamb roast may have to be patient, with new research pointing to strong livestock prices for several years.

Rabobank says limited supply and growing global demand are supporting Australia’s sheep industry, while high costs and labour pressures are making it difficult for farmers to expand. For households watching their grocery spending, including retirees balancing food bills against a fixed income, the outlook raises questions about when relief might reach the meat counter.

The bank estimates Australia’s sheep flock has fallen from 180 million in 1970 to about 66 million today. Despite attractive prices, report author and RaboResearch senior animal proteins analyst Angus Gidley-Baird said there was limited enthusiasm for rebuilding flocks on a large scale.

“The question now is whether those conditions will be enough to encourage widespread flock rebuilding,” he said.

Expensive replacement stock, seasonal uncertainty and the workforce needed to care for more sheep are constraining expansion.

Rabobank expects lamb prices to remain near current strong levels over the next several years, although that forecast concerns the livestock market rather than specific supermarket or butcher prices.

This is important when planning the weekly shop. A forecast for farmers’ returns cannot tell shoppers exactly what a leg of lamb or tray of chops will cost.

Meat & Livestock Australia market information analyst Emily Tan highlighted that complicated relationship in an analysis published in May 2025. Australian lamb production reached a then-record 629,385 tonnes in 2024, yet retail and saleyard prices remained steady, her analysis found.

Much of the additional production suited export markets, which have different requirements from Australian retailers. Simply producing more lamb therefore did not automatically translate into cheaper meat at home.

That helps explain why national flock numbers alone cannot predict the price of the next family roast. The type of lamb produced, its intended market and retailers’ buying requirements also matter.

For older Aussies who enjoy gathering the family around the table, the immediate question remains familiar: how to keep a favourite meal within budget. The new outlook offers no firm timetable for cheaper lamb, making the price on the shelf the more useful guide for household budgeting.

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