‘Game over’ for Nationals with leader’s lower house bid

Trying to move from the Senate to the lower house won’t save Nationals leader Matt Canavan or his party from political oblivion, a pollster has warned.

The Queensland senator on Monday announced he would seek preselection for the seat of Capricornia at the next federal election, to fill the vacancy left by sitting coalition MP Michelle Landry after her impending retirement.

“Someone’s got to step up, and I’m the next person up here in central Queensland, so I’ll put it on the line,” he told reporters in Rockhampton.

“Who knows, I might not be successful, my political career may die, but I’m not going to die wondering.”

The move is designed to sidestep a surging One Nation likely poaching Senator Canavan’s upper house seat at the next election, due to be held by May 2028.

The Nationals leader won the second of two Queensland Senate berths the coalition snagged six years ago and is runner-up on the LNP ticket behind Liberal James McGrath.

But the best he could hope for in Capricornia was second place, YouGov pollster Paul Smith told AAP.

“He has virtually no chance in the Senate and only an outside chance in Capricornia,” Mr Smith said.

“The LNP Queensland is far behind One Nation both in rural and provincial areas, and I would perceive that, on current polling, One Nation would easily win that seat with Labor being the second place party.”

Ms Landry, who entered parliament in 2013, is Capricornia’s longest-serving MP not from Labor.

Senator Canavan has also spent much of his tenure as Nationals leader arguing against net-zero emissions targets and opposing a free-trade agreement with the EU, which Mr Smith said will not resonate with the seat’s voters.

“Matt Canavan’s current messaging is out of touch with working class Australia’s economic concerns – that wages are not keeping track with prices is the number one concern,” he said.

“The particular type of One Nation voter who lives in this seat … when you ask them: you have a choice between stopping net-zero and a publicly owned and operated energy … they support public ownership.

“He has to speak to the economic conditions facing working people, and I think that would involve a very significant change in political messaging.”

The Nationals are unlikely to win a single lower house seat at the next election, according to YouGov’s polling, with a strong two-or-three seat showing in Victoria the best they can hope for.

“(Senator Canavan) is leading a party that’s rushing towards the meteorite coming out of the sky,” Mr Smith said.

“They’ve become an advocate for big business, not the advocate for the people they represent, and it’s just caught up with them, and it’s game over.”

Ms Landry holds Capricornia by a 5.8 per cent margin, having fended off modest swings towards second-placed Labor and third-placed One Nation in 2025.

There was speculation Pauline Hanson’s party would run its national director James Ashby against Senator Canavan in Capricornia, but Mr Ashby ruled that possibility out.

“I’ll play a role in the campaign here in Capricornia, but my position as national director is one that I take seriously, therefore I won’t be nominating at preselection,” he said in a statement.

“Capricornia is a seat One Nation can win.”

Mr Ashby has previously made an unsuccessful tilt for the seat of Keppel at the 2024 Queensland election.

Coalition preselectors will now decide whether Senator Canavan can stand as a candidate for Capricornia.

If he is successful, he will have to resign from the Senate.

“He’s putting it all on the line, we’re all putting it all on the line because we have to – because we need our country back,” Opposition Leader Angus Taylor said on Monday.

“I know Matt will be fighting all the way through to the next election.”