Concerns about a potential renewed global nuclear arms race could increase this week, with the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia expiring this week, with no agreement in place to extend or replace it.
The New Start treaty, which limits the number of deployed strategic nuclear weapons held by Washington and Moscow, lapses on February 4. There are currently no negotiations under way to preserve its limits. US President Donald Trump has downplayed the expiry, saying in a recent interview that “if it expires, it expires”.
The treaty has been widely regarded as a cornerstone of strategic stability. With other arms control agreements having collapsed in recent years, New Start is the only remaining framework that provides for inspections, data exchanges, notifications and verification between the two nuclear superpowers, which together hold about 87% of the world’s nuclear weapons.
Analysts warn that its demise could mark a decisive end to nuclear restraint between the US and Russia and accelerate a broader international arms build-up.
Formally known as the Prague Treaty, New Start was signed in 2010 by then US President Barack Obama and then Russian President Dmitri Medvedev and took effect a year later. It replaced a 2002 agreement that capped deployed strategic warheads at between 1,700 and 2,200.
Under New Start, both countries agreed to further reductions, limiting themselves to 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles and heavy bombers; 1,550 deployed warheads; and 800 deployed and non-deployed launchers. Those partial disarmament limits were met in 2018.
The treaty also established compliance mechanisms including twice-yearly data exchanges, frequent notifications about the movement of nuclear forces, and short-notice, on-site inspections. A bilateral consultative commission was created to resolve disputes and clarify implementation issues.
At the time of its ratification, the treaty was criticised for achieving only modest reductions and for covering a limited range of nuclear weapons. In the US, it also came with political costs.
To secure Senate approval, Obama agreed to a long-term program to modernise the entire US nuclear arsenal and supporting facilities. The cost of this effort has since been estimated at well over US$2 trillion, a commitment critics say entrenched reliance on nuclear weapons and undermined prospects for disarmament.
As the treaty approached its original expiry date in 2021, Russia offered a five-year extension. Trump, then in office, declined. After winning the 2020 election, President Joe Biden agreed to extend New Start in February 2021, just two days before it would have lapsed. The treaty allows no further extensions beyond February 2026.
In February 2023, Russia suspended its participation in key elements of the agreement, including data exchanges and inspections, but did not formally withdraw. It said it would continue to observe the numerical limits.
In September last year, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia was prepared to abide by the limits for one additional year if the US did the same. Apart from Trump’s remark that “it sounds like a good idea to me”, Washington did not formally respond.
Trump has also insisted that any future arms control talks must include China, a proposal Beijing has repeatedly rejected. There is no precedent for trilateral nuclear arms negotiations, and China’s nuclear arsenal remains far smaller than those of the US and Russia.
If New Start expires without any follow-on arrangement, both countries would be free to rapidly increase their deployed strategic arsenals. Analysts say Russia could raise its deployed warheads by about 60% and the US by more than 100% within months, by loading additional warheads onto existing missiles and bombers. Both countries also have large numbers of reserve warheads that could be reactivated.
The end of inspections, data exchanges and notification requirements is expected to increase uncertainty and mistrust, potentially fuelling further military expansion.
Observers say the treaty’s expiry underscores the stagnation of nuclear arms control efforts more broadly. No new negotiations on disarmament or nuclear risk reduction are scheduled.
Calls have been made for both countries to continue observing New Start limits while pursuing a successor agreement, and to recommit to their obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to work towards disarmament. However, recent actions by both governments suggest a different trajectory.
Trump’s foreign policy since returning to office, including military actions in Iran and Venezuela, has been cited by critics as evidence of a broader scepticism towards international treaties. Russia, meanwhile, has issued repeated nuclear threats in the context of the war in Ukraine and employed nuclear-capable weapons systems, moves that analysts say heighten global risks.
As New Start expires, many experts warn that the erosion of arms control frameworks makes preventing nuclear conflict more difficult and further dims prospects for eventual disarmament.
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