Brisbane v Geelong. Who wins the property battle?

The MCG will host Saturday’s AFL Grand Final but the real game was played in the property market.

Both Geelong and Brisbane represent two of the strongest connections between sporting success and real estate performance. Both teams arrive as genuine Grand Final contenders, but their property stories reveal which city has already claimed victory.

The Fagan Effect

The Lions’ transformation under Chris Fagan mirrors one of the most dramatic property turnarounds in recent memory. Between 2005 and 2018, Brisbane averaged 13th on the ladder while their housing market crawled along with just 18 per cent growth over 14 years. The team was mediocre, the city’s confidence was flat, and property investors looked elsewhere.

Then everything changed. As the Lions roared back to relevance with preliminary finals, grand final appearances, and now another shot at September glory, Brisbane house prices have exploded 107 per cent over the past six years. When your team consistently delivers September thrills, your city becomes more attractive, more confident, more valuable.

The Geelong Standard

The Cats have written the playbook on how sporting excellence drives property growth. Sixteen top-four finishes in the last 20 years, including premierships in 2007, 2009, 2011 and 2022, have helped transform Geelong from industrial town to a lifestyle destination.

Each September run brings national media attention, each premiership delivers civic pride that attracts investment and tourism. The football success became inseparable from the city’s economic development story, with the team serving as the city’s best marketing asset for attracting the population and investment growth that powered property appreciation.

The connection runs so deep that when the Cats had their worst season in decades (12th in 2023), property prices dropped 3 per cent, one of only two declines in the past 20 years. When Geelong struggles, the market notices.

The Real Winner

Here’s where it gets interesting. Since 2018, Brisbane house prices have surged 106 per cent compared to Geelong’s 35 per cent. Even more telling: Brisbane’s membership has tripled from 24,867 to 75,115, while Geelong’s grew just 44 per cent to 92,379. This season alone, Brisbane added 18 per cent more members while Geelong managed just 1.7 per cent growth.

Geelong may still be pulling rank on the field but they’re stagnating where it matters most: community engagement and market confidence. Brisbane brings explosive momentum from a city rediscovering its sporting soul, while Geelong represents a mature market that’s already captured most of its upside.

It should be painfully obvious that Saturday’s winner has already been decided. The Brisbane Lions carry the momentum of a market riding high on sporting resurgence, explosive membership growth, and house price gains that have outpaced every expectation. A victory this weekend would cement their dynasty, but the truth is that reaching a third consecutive Grand Final has already delivered the confidence boost Brisbane homeowners needed.

The data tells the story: Brisbane has already won where it matters most. Saturday’s game? That’s just the victory lap.

Of course, we may be getting ahead of ourselves, but isn’t that part of the madness of Grand Final week? Both these clubs have given us incredible stories of success, community, and the magic that happens when a city truly gets behind its team.

For now, we wish the Brisbane Lions and Geelong Cats massive congratulations for reaching the pinnacle of our beautiful game.

Atom Go Tian is the Senior Data Analyst at the Ray White Group