What’s the Weather Doing This Christmas Day? (And Can We Trust It?)

If there’s one thing more universally discussed at Christmas than pavlova recipes and whether someone forgot to buy extra ice blocks, it’s the weather. Will it be sun-drenched and perfect for the bbq? Or will your niece end up opening presents in a soggy backyard? As we stare down the run into December 25, the forecasts are … enthusiastic. But let’s also talk about how much faith you should actually put in them.

Here’s a city-by-city snapshot of what the meteorologists are predicting – with a healthy pinch of scepticism about long-range forecasts.

Sydney: Warm with a Chance of Everything

The Bureau’s latest long-range guidance suggests Sydney could be around 26 °C with cloudy skies and a decent chance of showers through the day.

But here’s the catch: you could have a perfectly pleasant afternoon barbecue … or you might have rain interrupt your cricket game. That’s the fun (and frustration) of Aussie weather – it’ll argue with itself twice before lunch.

Melbourne: Partly Cloudy and Typically Unpredictable

Down in Melbourne, forecasts point to partly cloudy skies and mild temperatures – perhaps about 21 °C or so.

Which in Melbourne means: yes, you might need a light jacket at breakfast and sunglasses by lunch. Planning ahead? Good luck – you’ll still be wrong.

Brisbane: Warm, Humid, Possibly Wet

Queensland is touted to see warm weather with afternoon showers and maybe a thunderstorm on Christmas Day.

So if you’re dreaming of a sunburn and a surf between prawns and pudding – well … perhaps after the afternoon drizzle. It’s Brisbane: you get your summer, and then some.

Perth: Sun, Sun and… More Sun

Head west and this Christmas looks to be hot and sunny in Perth, with temperatures comfortably in the 30s.

Ideal weather for beach cricket or a lazy snooze under the patio umbrella – and it’s the one centre where the forecast has been pretty consistent. Let’s hope it stays that way.

Adelaide: Sunny and Pleasant

South Australia’s Christmas appears set to be mostly sunny with temperatures in the mid-20s.

Perfect for cold drinks, warm smiles and long lunches. Just try not to tell anyone it’s barely clothing-optional weather yet.

How Accurate Are These Forecasters Anyway?

Here’s the rub: Christmas Day forecasts more than a week out are a bit like promising your relatives will definitely behave at dinner. There’s logic, science and hard data behind it, but there’s also chaos. And that chaos is called the atmosphere.

Experts point out that weather forecast accuracy drops with time – the further ahead you go, the more the tiny ups and downs in the atmosphere can magnify into big changes. That’s why meteorologists tend to give seven-day forecasts and update frequently.

That’s not doom and gloom – it’s honest. And it’s why weather apps will often show probabilities rather than certainties: they’re saying “X is most likely,” not “X will happen.”

So if you’re reading this and nodding sagely at what “might” happen on the 25th … remember: it’s a forecast, not gospel. But it’s good enough to plan your pavlova and your sunscreen.

Bottom Line for Christmas 2025
Sydney: Warm with showers possible – keep the eskies and the umbrellas ready.
Melbourne: Mild and variable – typical Melbourne summer mood swings.
Brisbane: Warm, humid, afternoon rain likely.
Perth: Hot and sunny – perfect beach conditions.
Adelaide: Sunny and pleasant – great for outdoor feasting.
And let’s not forget: come Christmas Eve, those numbers could get shuffled around again – because weather loves a bit of drama as much as we love a good Christmas horror story.