An inside look at how Academy Awards are decided

Each January, Hollywood enters awards-season mode as studios, critics and industry commentators speculate about which films will take home Academy Awards, or Oscars.

For film buffs and Tinseltown watchers, the 98^th Academy Awards takes place next Monday 16 March, beginning at 10am Australian time. Around the country, the event spawns countless watch parties and often spirited debate on who should win.

But for cinema being the art form it is, there’s a complex science far removed from art that goes a long way toward deciding who leaves on the night clutching one of the prized statuettes.

While artistic merit is often central to the conversation, the process of determining winners is far more complex. Around 10,000 members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences cast confidential ballots within their professional branches, with all eligible members voting in the Best Picture category.

As modern filmmaking has become increasingly tied to marketing and commercial positioning, forecasting Oscar outcomes has evolved into a multifaceted exercise.

One key factor is whether a film is regarded as a “prestige” production. Such status is typically built through serious subject matter, favourable critical reception, strategic release dates and sustained promotional efforts.

Historically, films that tackle emotionally resonant or socially significant themes have fared well. Previous Best Picture winners including The King’s Speech (2010), 12 Years A Slave (2013) and Schindler’s List (1993) exemplify this pattern. Observers have noted that No Country for Old Men (2007) was a rare recent winner that appeared to diverge from these conventions.

This year’s leading contenders continue to draw on recognisable motifs. Hamnet centres on the hardships faced by William Shakespeare’s family, while Sinners – which has amassed a record 16 nominations – merges supernatural horror with depictions of historical injustices experienced by African Americans. Its distinctive approach has made it a strong prospect in the Best Original Screenplay category.

Release timing remains another strategic consideration. Films that debut between September and December are often better positioned for awards recognition, as they remain prominent during nomination and voting periods.

Prior accolades also contribute to a film’s momentum. Productions that perform well at major festivals such as Cannes can gain additional credibility, with Academy voters sometimes influenced by the broader critical consensus.

Individual career trajectories can also shape awards races. In the Best Actor category, Timothée Chalamet is widely viewed as a leading contender. Previously nominated for A Complete Unknown (2024) and Call Me by Your Name (2017), he has also built a strong commercial profile through the Dune franchise. His performance in Marty Supreme – portraying an “unlikable parasitic hustler” – has further elevated his standing.

Director Paul Thomas Anderson is similarly seen as well-placed to win Best Director after receiving 11 nominations across his career. His latest film, One Battle After Another, has attracted attention for its engagement with contemporary issues such as immigration enforcement and policing.

Industry observers also highlight the importance of generating “positive buzz”.

Large-scale promotional campaigns funded by major studios can significantly boost a film’s awards prospects. Greta Gerwig’s Barbie (2023) is frequently cited as an example. Warner Bros reportedly matched the film’s production costs with an equally substantial marketing campaign and secured more than 100 brand partnerships, including collaborations with Airbnb and Burger King. The resulting “pinkification” trend helped cement the film’s cultural impact.

A similar promotional strategy appears to be in development for The Devil Wears Prada 2, backed by 20th Century Studios.

Professional relationships within the film industry can further influence outcomes. Drawing on the concept of “cumulative advantage” developed by sociologist Robert K. Merton, analysts suggest that established creatives are more likely to attract high-profile collaborators. This dynamic can enhance a film’s perceived prestige and increase its chances of awards recognition.

The Academy’s new Achievement in Casting category has underscored the role of star power. Leonardo Di Caprio’s prominent role in One Battle After Another, along with the continued collaboration between director Yorgos Lanthimos and actress Emma Stone, are seen as examples of how high-profile partnerships generate attention. Stone’s performance in Bugonia and Di Caprio’s portrayal of a flawed anti-hero father have both become talking points during awards season.

Lobbying also forms part of Oscar campaigning. Direct tactics can include industry advertising, magazine coverage, preview screenings, complimentary ticket offers and question-and-answer events designed to engage voters. Some commentators argue that indirect approaches, such as promoting favourable narratives or criticising rival productions, can be even more effective.

The 1999 Best Picture win for Shakespeare in Love over Saving Private Ryan is often cited as a notable example of campaign influence. The push was led by the notorious Harvey Weinstein in his role at the time as head of Miramax – and prior to his sexual assault offences and convictions.

As the awards race unfolds, many analysts argue that Oscar outcomes reflect a blend of artistic achievement, commercial positioning and industry relationships. In this view, success is determined not solely by quality, but by which films emerge as the most likely winners.