Travellers are being warned to brace for fewer flights, rising fares and a new era of more cautious airline scheduling across Asia
People planning winter escapes to Bali, India and other popular Asian destinations may soon find travelling becomes more expensive, and less convenient.
Budget airline AirAsia has confirmed it will axe its Melbourne-to-Denpasar and Adelaide-to-Denpasar routes from June 18, blaming soaring jet fuel prices linked to escalating instability in the Middle East. The move follows earlier cuts to services from Darwin.
But aviation analysts say Bali may only be the beginning.
Across Asia, airlines are quietly reducing services, trimming seat capacity and reassessing routes as fuel costs climb to levels many low-cost carriers are struggling to absorb.
Thai AirAsia recently announced it would reduce seat capacity on Indian routes by about 30 per cent, while other carriers across Asia have started winding back international services and frequencies.
India’s national carrier Air India has also suspended or reduced frequencies on dozens of international routes through August as airlines grapple with rising fuel costs, disrupted airspace and operational pressure linked to Middle East tensions, The Times of India recently reported.
The concern centres on one of the airline industry’s biggest operating costs, jet fuel, which has surged sharply amid fears around global oil supply and shipping routes near the Strait of Hormuz.
Australian airlines are feeling the pressure, too. Qantas recently warned its fuel bill for the second half of the financial year could jump to as much as $3.3 billion, while Virgin Australia has flagged rising fares and tighter scheduling as costs escalate.
For travellers, the effects are already visible.
Australians may increasingly face:
That could especially affect older Aussies, with destinations such as Bali, Thailand and India remaining hugely popular among retirees, grey nomads and long-stay travellers.
Demand for overseas travel remains strong, but the era of spontaneous ultra-cheap Asian getaways appears to be coming under growing pressure.
The outlook now heavily depends on whether oil prices ease and tensions in the Middle East stabilise in coming months.
In a best-case scenario, airlines may gradually restore some suspended routes later in 2026 if fuel prices retreat. But many experts believe travellers are more likely entering a period of permanently higher operating costs, fewer ultra-cheap fares and more cautious airline scheduling across Asia-Pacific routes.
Several carriers have already started prioritising only their most profitable services, while others are reducing frequencies rather than abandoning destinations entirely. For Australians accustomed to bargain flights into Bali and Southeast Asia, spontaneous cut-price travel deals may yet become far less common.