A year ago, Donald Trump was running for President, but few took him seriously. Britain was still part of Europe and no one though a pro-Brexit vote was a possibility. The US was the most powerful nation on Earth and Britain was still a major player in world affairs.
How things have changed. Trump has taken the United States into a nosedive. He and the country are a laughing stock and even if he is impeached or committed to a mental health facility, the poor quality presidential succession line-up is not intellectually willing or capable of halting the slide. The idea that you can make a nation great with an isolationist agenda of destroying international alliances and treaties, demonising foreigners, denying and ignoring climate change, crippling future employment prospects, dismantling progressive social policy, selling arms that will end up in the hands of terrorists and alienating half or more of your citizens is a novel approach to governance, but not exactly a recipe for success.
Britain, one would hope, should have had more sense. Its strength derived from its leading role in Europe, its special relationship with the US, its position as a European and world financial centre, and its historical standing as defender of Europe and bulwark against Russian aggression. But now that all lies in tatters. The country will negotiate Brexit from a position of weakness, cap in hand and totally at the mercy of an unimpressed Europe. And, if Britain does not know it already, there is nothing about any relationship that Donald Trump considers special, so the country is likely to slide back into an obscurity unknown since pre-Roman times.
It is as though the US and Britain have deliberately decided to become third world countries.
So, with the US and Britain abrogating their power and influence in world affairs, where will the world find the leadership to guide us though possibly humanity’s final climate-charged century?
In a delicious piece of irony, the leader of the ‘free world’ is now Germany. Angela Merkel, who was expecting a bumpy ride at her next election, has taken up the mantel and inspires a great deal of confidence. When surrounded by clowns, it’s best to seek out a ringmaster, and Merkel fits the bill.
France dodged a Trump-like bullet and recently elected Emmanuel Macron to the presidency, a man who quickly proved he also has Trump’s measure and is not someone to take lightly. Together, Germany and France look like they have the ability to unite the rest of Europe and form a very powerful alliance. And as the EU has now been abandoned by the US and Britain, China has seized the opportunity to fill a gap and extend its influence to the wider world.
All good news for Europe, but not so good for the elephant in the room, Russia. Interfering with the US election was a smart move and Putin must have thought it was Christmas when Brexit occurred, followed by Trump’s lukewarm reaction to America’s NATO membership. Eastern Europe beckoned. But a united Europe with a Chinese trading partnership must be Putin’s worse nightmare. He’s been so busy interfering in other countries, he forgotten he’s supposed to be running Russia and the result is that he may end up as isolated and ineffectual as the US and Britain. And his people are not likely to favour a strongman without strength. Such is the life of a dictator.
This is a fascinating time to be alive. A pivotal moment in history. The election of Donald Trump, as sad and embarrassing as it is, has had a very powerful and positive effect on the western world. It has made those countries realise ‘Leader of the Free World’ is a hallow title, as flimsy and insubstantial as the man in the Oval Office. Democracies can no longer run and hide behind America’s skirts when the going gets tough and rely on the US to bail them out. The Emperor Trump has no clothes and no one fears him. Merkel quickly realised this and Macron was ready when he stepped into power and immediately treated Trump with contempt. Other countries are still kowtowing to the US, unsure of which way the wind blows, but they are no doubt taking heart from Germany and France and will soon look away from Trump for reassurance and guidance.
The US has been carrying the responsibility can for the western world since World War II and the relative global peace enjoyed by the planet since then is largely due to its efforts. Unfortunately, this responsibility resulted in dependency instead of partnership, leading to the US charging around the world like a bull in a china shop as it tried to fix various issues and conflicts, due to often naïve reasoning and a condescending sense of righteousness.
But Trump has stopped all that and, as they say, has changed the world forever. He’s grabbed the United States ball and gone home in a sulk. A victim of a witch hunt, conspiracies and people being mean to him. Life is so unfair!
Yet the truth is that the world is not conspiring against him. It’s much worse than that. It is conspiring without him.