Support for One Nation is on the rise across Australia, with a new quarterly Newspoll analysis pointing to significant voter shifts that could reshape the political landscape ahead of the next federal election.
The latest Newspoll snapshot – based on surveys conducted between January and late March – suggests both Australian Labor Party and the Liberal National Party of Queensland are losing ground in key states, particularly Queensland, where One Nation has surged to become a major force.
According to the Newspoll analysis, One Nation now holds a primary vote of around 30 per cent in Queensland, ahead of Labor (27 per cent) and the LNP (23 per cent).
The figures highlight growing pressure on the government of Anthony Albanese, particularly in a state where Labor made significant gains at the last election. Several of those newly won seats are now considered vulnerable if current trends continue.
While Queensland is the standout, the shift is not isolated.
Newspoll data shows Labor’s primary vote falling in both New South Wales and Victoria over recent months, while support for One Nation has increased in those states as well. At the same time, the Coalition has also seen its primary vote decline, reflecting a broader fragmentation of voter support.
Other polling and commentary in recent months have pointed to a similar trend – with minor parties and independents continuing to attract voters dissatisfied with the major parties, particularly amid ongoing cost-of-living pressures.
One of the more striking findings from the Newspoll analysis is where that support is coming from.
Backing for One Nation has grown significantly among younger Australians, with support among voters aged 18 to 34 more than doubling since late last year.
There has also been a noticeable shift among women, alongside increased support from voters with trade or technical qualifications.
The polling period coincided with a number of challenges for the government, including rising inflation, interest rates and broader economic pressures.
Dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Albanese has also increased across multiple demographics, according to Newspoll, adding to the difficulties facing Labor as it looks to retain key seats.
At the same time, One Nation – led by Pauline Hanson – appears to be attracting voters from both major parties, particularly the Coalition, as well as those who previously supported minor parties and independents.
The results underline a broader shift in Australian politics, where voters are increasingly moving away from the traditional two-party system.
With the next federal election on the horizon, both Labor and the Coalition now face the challenge of regaining support, while One Nation and other minor parties look to build on their momentum.
If current polling trends continue, Queensland – along with parts of regional New South Wales and other key areas – could play a decisive role in shaping the outcome.