A change in leader has not endeared voters back to the Coalition, according to one new poll which shows that if a federal election were held today, Angus Taylor’s party could win as little as nine House of Representatives seats.
The DemosAU Multilevel Regression with Post-stratification (MRP) poll, based on fieldwork conducted between January 13 and March 3 with 8,424 respondents, projected that a new federal election held now would see Labor win 83 of the 150 lower house seats – still above the 76 required for a majority – while One Nation could secure 52 seats. The Greens were estimated to win one seat and other parties five.
The modelling suggested national primary votes of 29% for Labor, 27% for One Nation and 21% for the Coalition, with the Greens on 12% and other parties on 11%. Analysts cautioned that the long fieldwork period means the poll “should not be taken as an indication of recent poll trends,” instead reflecting how an election might have played out earlier in the year.
Separate national polling has also pointed to a fragmented political landscape. A YouGov survey for Sky News, conducted March 17–24 from a sample of about 1,500 voters, put Labor on 29% of the primary vote, followed by One Nation on 27% and the Coalition on 19%. The Greens were steady at 13%, independents rose to 6% and other parties slipped to 6%.
On respondent-allocated preferences, Labor led One Nation by 53–47, narrowing to the closest margin recorded between the two parties in the poll series. Labor’s lead over the Coalition was 54–46.
An Essential poll conducted March 18–22 among 1,008 respondents showed Labor’s primary vote at 31%, the Coalition on 24% and One Nation also on 24%. Including undecided voters, the Coalition led Labor by 47–46 on respondent preferences. However, when applying preference flows from the 2025 election, Labor would hold a lead of nearly 52–48.
Leadership ratings in the Essential survey showed Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s net approval falling six points to -12, with 51% disapproving and 39% approving. Taylor recorded an initial net approval rating of -17.
Foreign policy questions in the same poll suggested voters were sceptical about military action involving Iran. By 42–26 respondents disapproved of the United States and Israel’s decision to initiate strikes, while by 34–26 they approved of Australia’s response. By 61–13 in a separate Resolve survey, voters supported Australia staying out of the situation entirely.
The latest Roy Morgan poll, conducted March 16–22 from 1,664 respondents, showed Labor on 27% of the primary vote, down 1.5 points, with the Coalition up 1.5 points to 25.5% and One Nation rising to 23.5%. On respondent preferences, Labor led the Coalition by 52.5–47.5.
State polling has also highlighted shifting dynamics ahead of upcoming elections. In Victoria, a Freshwater survey for The Herald Sun, conducted March 19–23 among 1,060 voters, showed the Coalition leading Labor 52–48 on respondent preferences. The Coalition’s primary vote rose to 30%, while Labor slipped to 27% and One Nation fell to 20%.
The poll suggested the contest could tighten to 50–50 if Labor replaced Premier Jacinta Allan. Liberal leader Jess Wilson improved her net favourability to +18 and led Allan as preferred premier by 47–31.
Meanwhile, results from the recent South Australian election underscored the strength of minor parties. One Nation secured 22.2% of the statewide primary vote, ahead of the Liberals on 19.1%. Lower house counting indicated Labor was likely to win about 34 of the 47 seats once undecided contests were resolved.
Despite volatility in primary vote support and continued leadership changes within the Coalition, most current polling suggests Labor remains competitive in forming government if similar trends were replicated at a federal election.