The Albanese Government’s proposed changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions have sparked debate among economists, housing experts and investors, with many older Australians now wondering what it could mean for their retirement nest eggs.

A new Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey found experts are almost evenly split on whether the proposed tax shake-up would genuinely help first home buyers break into the market.

While 52 per cent of panellists believed reducing tax incentives for investors could improve opportunities for younger buyers, almost half argued the reforms would do little to solve Australia’s deeper housing affordability crisis.

For many Starts at 60 readers, the issue cuts both ways.

Many Australians over 55 own investment properties or rely on rental income as part of their retirement strategy. Others are increasingly worried about whether their children and grandchildren will ever be able to afford a home of their own.

Finder data showed 36 per cent of Australians now believe they may never be able to buy property.

Level playing field for first home buyers

Richard Whitten, home loans expert at Finder, said the proposed changes could slightly level the playing field for first home buyers but warned they would not solve the underlying shortage of housing.

“Reducing the tax advantages for investors will give first home buyers a better shot at competing for a property,” he said.

“But Australia still has a fundamental housing shortage, and that’s what ultimately drives prices.”

The survey also highlighted concerns that any major reduction in investor activity could create new problems in the rental market.

AMP chief economist Shane Oliver warned that while some younger buyers might benefit from less competition, reduced investor demand could eventually mean fewer rental properties being built.

“By depressing housing supply it could make things harder for renters,” Oliver said.

Retirement implications

Housing Industry Association chief economist Tim Reardon went further, arguing the changes could worsen Australia’s housing shortage altogether.

There are also broader retirement implications.

Many older Australians have spent decades building wealth through property investment, often using negative gearing as part of long-term financial planning. Critics of the proposed reforms say changing the rules now risks undermining confidence for retirees and future investors alike.

The other argument is the current system unfairly advantages investors over younger Australians trying to buy their first home.

The debate is unlikely to cool any time soon, particularly with economists forecasting softer property prices in Sydney and Melbourne over the next 12 months.

For now, many Australians — young and old — are watching closely to see whether the proposed reforms will finally shift the housing market, or simply add another layer to an already complex affordability crisis.