One Nation has claimed a historic victory in the Secret Harbour by-election, securing its first-ever lower house seat in Western Australia and toppling Labor in a seat it had held, in various forms, since 1989.

Gym owner and former national weightlifting champion Luke Herdegen was declared the winner by the ABC’s chief elections and data analyst Casey Briggs a little over four hours after counting began, with One Nation’s WA leader Rod Caddies claiming victory at 9:30pm local time. As counting continued into the night, One Nation had attracted 35.8 per cent of the primary vote, well ahead of Labor on 25 per cent and the Liberals on 17.4 per cent.

It’s a stunning result in a seat Labor had held by an 11.5 per cent margin under retiring minister Paul Papalia, and represents a swing large enough to overturn one of the safest Labor seats in the state.

“There are no safe Labor seats in this state or in this country anymore,” Herdegen told an enthusiastic crowd as he claimed victory. “No seat is safe from the orange tsunami.”

Caddies said the result would send shockwaves nationally, describing Australia’s traditional two-party political system as “dead” and noting that most observers had considered a One Nation win in the seat impossible before Saturday’s vote.

How the day unfolded

Earlier on Saturday, with just 22 per cent of the vote counted, Herdegen held a narrow 1.45 per cent lead over Labor’s Georgia Tree, a political staffer-turned-Woodside lobbyist. That early lead steadily grew as counting continued through the evening.

Herdegen, 39, runs several Anytime Fitness franchises across Perth’s southern suburbs, including one serving Secret Harbour itself. Originally from Newcastle, NSW, he moved to the City of Rockingham in 2023 and was selected as One Nation’s candidate from a field of 88 applicants.

WA Premier Roger Cook had earlier conceded the contest would be a genuine battle despite Labor’s substantial margin, saying a loss would “break my heart.” Labor reportedly spent close to $9 million campaigning to hold the seat, including a Medicare-focused attack on One Nation that was found to be false.

What voters told us on the ground

Cost-of-living pressures, housing affordability and a perceived lack of community investment topped voter concerns in the outer-suburban, mortgage-belt electorate south of Perth.

Qantas flight attendant Luke Pors, who voted for One Nation, said he trusted the party to do a better job than Labor or the Liberals, and was impressed by Herdegen’s relatable, local campaign presence.

Retirees Ann and Les Scard also backed One Nation. Mr Scard praised Herdegen’s strong campaign and said he deserved a chance, while Mrs Scard said she wasn’t troubled by the party’s immigration stance, describing herself as broadly aligned with Pauline Hanson’s views on the issue.

Not everyone was convinced. Retired truck driver Dean Maxwell voted Labor and placed One Nation last on his ballot, saying he didn’t see good policy from the party and was personally unconvinced by Hanson.

Herdegen himself framed the result as a reflection of genuine desperation among voters doing it tough. “They’re struggling with cost of living; there’s a major housing issue here with the mass immigration coming through and people have just had enough,” he said during the campaign.

Why this result matters beyond WA

Secret Harbour was seen as One Nation’s biggest test yet in Western Australia, a state where the party had never previously won a lower house seat. The result now raises real questions about whether the same surge in support driving One Nation’s gains on the east coast can translate into results west of the Nullarbor.

It’s also being watched closely ahead of Victoria’s state election in November, where One Nation’s performance in a genuinely safe Labor seat will likely be read as an early signal of how far the party’s momentum can carry it in other traditionally rusted-on Labor territory around the country.