Expert: ‘Australia won’t be hit as hard as Italy’

The numbers of confirmed coronavirus cases in Australia keep growing every day. This is no surprise since the virus is highly contagious. It is, however, crucial that I make some very important points about this infection.

Last week, a health spokesperson in Australia made the comment that there’s the possibility for 15 million cases and around 150,000 deaths in this country alone. This may be the case, but the reality is that in a country of 25 million people, we recorded our first case in late January with the first death on February 29. Therefore, in just over eight weeks of active infections in this country, we have only experienced eight deaths in very sick elderly people, most of whom were in high-dependency nursing homes.

As of Friday morning, there were 2,985 reported cases during this eight-week period. This is in stark contrast to a place like Italy where the cases appeared to start around a week before Australia and they now have a total of 80,589 cases with 8,215 deaths. Of the current 62,013 active cases in Italy, 93 per cent are considered mild and 7 per cent serious or critical which basically corresponds to their current death rate. Our current death rate is 0.65 per cent.

We therefore need to ask ourselves the question, what is the clear difference in number and severity of cases between the two countries? Australia has a population closing in on 25 million, whereas Italy has a population of just over 60 million. If the virus behaved in a similar fashion in both countries, assuming it started around the same time, why has Italy had 50 times the caseload of Australia and close to 700 times more deaths? We are all Homo sapiens with allegedly similar immune systems so surely there can’t be that much of a difference.

I believe we need to consider the circumstances in both countries to find some answers. I’m not suggesting these are definitive, but purely suggestions that may give comfort to the people very scared about the potential consequences of this virus in Australia at both a personal and community level.

Firstly, and very importantly, the virus has really taken hold in extreme climates. Viruses typically like cold weather, with this first emanating in freezing cold Wuhan with daily temperatures just above zero. Coronavirus then took hold in northern Italy, South Korea and Iran during their very cold winters. In Australia, we’ve only had a few cold days over the past week, somewhat corresponding to the rising infections, but when you understand simple maths, infections such as these double every few days.
But in our country we haven’t seen the massive amount of infections experienced in Italy and other places. Our winters are never as cold as the places mentioned.

Secondly, we have a very low smoking rate in this country of around 13 per cent of the adult population, whereas the countries significantly affected by the coronavirus have a much higher rate of smoking. There are an estimated 360 million smokers in China and tragically 60 per cent of male doctors in China are smokers.

Thirdly, the areas where the virus has really taken hold are heavily polluted and when you combine cigarette smoking with heavy air pollution, this is a recipe for disaster, even without a clearly contagious and very toxic virus.

Also, there have been some questions about the reporting of deaths in Italy as opposed to a place like Germany for instance, where the death rates appear rather low. It has been suggested that elderly people dying from other conditions have also been lumped into the ‘corona bag’ and therefore the estimation of death rates may be higher than reality.

There have also been some suggestions about the standard of medical care in Italy, but having personally been involved in research with some of my Italian colleagues and having witnessed their medical practices, I believe these statements are somewhat unfair.

Regardless, I still believe coronavirus will continue to be less toxic in our country for all the reasons detailed above. It is my opinion that we do need the government restrictions imposed with quarantine, self-isolation and social distancing. For at least the next month, our current lifestyle will change markedly but if we are all sensible, we should see through this crisis and hopefully life will return to normal at some stage over the next three to six months.