The government’s Covid-19 modelling shows ‘we are flattening the curve’

Scientific modelling of Australia’s potential coronavirus spread shows social distancing and hygiene measures are working to “flatten the curve”.

Chief Medical Officer Brendan Murphy presented modelling data of the coronavirus pandemic — prepared by the Doherty Institute at the University of Melbourne — during a press conference at Parliament House in Canberra on Tuesday afternoon.

“The early indications are positive, but we can’t be complacent,” he said. “We must not be complacent, we must hold the line.”

However Murphy stressed that the modelling is highly theoretical and not based on Australian data. He also said it was completed in the early days of the pandemic.

“The purpose of this data is to show these measures… have had a substantial downward effect,” Murphy added. “With social distancing… we know we can meet the ICU demand.”

The government’s coronavirus modelling shows there would have been a demand for 35,000 intensive care unit beds had Prime Minister Scott Morrison and the national cabinet not introduced social distancing and hygiene measures aimed at minimising the spread.

However, Murphy said, based on the data available, it was “too early” to predict when social distancing measures or stay-home orders can be relaxed. He said that will come out in the next round using Australian data.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the official papers, set to be released later today, show that “by taking the measures we are taking, you can make a difference”.

“The modelling does not predict what will happen in Australia,” he said. “The modelling work is based on international data… it proves up the theory of flattening the curve.”

Social distancing mostly means avoiding close contact with others, as well as public spaces. Cancelling events that are likely to draw a large number of people is an example of social distancing. As of now, only two people will be legally permitted to gather together in public places, exempting families and members of the same household. The new guidelines were announced by the PM just over a week ago.

The tighter restrictions mean that boot camps, community groups and other public gatherings will now be legally limited to just two people, with local governments able to enforce these measures, with some states also prepared to hand out fines where necessary. The only exemptions will be work and education, however social distancing guidelines still apply.

The prime minister stressed that Australians should now not be leaving the house unless they are shopping for necessary supplies, attending medical appointments or leaving the home for compassionate reasons, exercising – in line with the latest guidelines – or for work and education, if remote options are not available.